Three months out from the main Indonesian harvest window, early crop-monitoring data suggests 2026 will be a bifurcated year: strong volumes on rimpang crops, weaker volumes on tree crops, and premium-quality supply constrained across the board. Here's what we're telling regular buyers.
Turmeric — volume up, price stable
Java and Sumatra turmeric planting was up 6.4% in the 2024/25 planting season according to Kementan (Ministry of Agriculture) figures. Harvest yields per hectare should be roughly in line with 2024. Expect ample supply, stable pricing, no shortage risk for the year.
Nutmeg — volume down 8%, prices firming
The Banda Islands and North Sulawesi both experienced unusually heavy blossoming rains in July 2025, reducing fruit set. Expect 2026 shell-on nutmeg availability roughly 8% below 2025, with volatile oil content averaging 6.8% (still excellent). Prices at origin already up 11% year-on-year. Book Q1 2026 by November 2025.
Cloves — mixed outlook
The Maluku and North Sulawesi clove harvest is on a natural biennial cycle. 2026 is an off-year — expect 12-18% lower volumes. Industry-standard Zanzibar-type grading typically holds above 18% eugenol regardless of the yield cycle, though lab certification for any specific lot should be confirmed at order. Pharmaceutical and cosmetic buyers should lock in Q1 volumes now.
Cacao — a good year for Sulawesi single-origin
West Sulawesi and Central Sulawesi cacao growers report excellent flowering and low pod-borer incidence. Expect strong volumes and continued availability of premium fine-flavour beans. Fermentation improvements at cooperative level continue — bean quality is now competitive with West African premium origins.
Our recommendations
- Turmeric: order in normal cadence, no need to rush
- Nutmeg: lock in Q1 2026 before November 2025
- Cloves: lock in Q1 2026 now — off-year prices only rise
- Cacao: opportunity to secure new micro-lots at fair prices for 2026/27 tasting cycle
- Coffee: see our separate Sumatra 2025 harvest report (link below)
Our next full market intelligence brief drops mid-November. Regular Nusawara buyers receive it 10 days before the public release.
